State of Fashion 2026 - Halfway there

Did the industry's most influential report get it right?

Eight months ago, McKinsey and The Business of Fashion published the State of Fashion 2026.

The title was a statement of intent: When the Rules Change.

Today we are halfway to the next report. And there is a question worth asking:

Did they get it right?

My answer is yes.

But I think they fell short on one thing: the speed at which the rules were going to change.

Let's review

Tariffs. The report was published when tariffs on fashion and footwear had already jumped from 13% to 36%. It warned that trade volatility would be one of the industry's biggest constraints.

Since then, the US Supreme Court declared the mechanism used to impose those tariffs illegal. Hours later, the Administration activated another legal route to maintain part of the measures. Brands like Oxford Industries are already claiming refunds for overpaid tariffs. Others are still waiting to see what will happen with the next mechanism.

The rules have changed twice in seven months.

It is not an anomaly. It is exactly the new normal that the report anticipated.

Growth. They also got it right. The market still shows no solid recovery. Companies are growing more through execution than tailwinds.

Value over price. Confirmed. The conversation no longer revolves around whether a product is expensive, but whether it justifies what it costs.

AI Shopper. Probably the point that has evolved the fastest. What a few months ago seemed like a hypothesis is starting to become a reality: assistants capable of searching, comparing, and recommending products. AI is ceasing to be a tool for companies and is starting to become an intermediary between brands and the consumer.

Sourcing. Here the change has been even faster than expected. Chinese clothing exports to the United States recorded a historic drop during the first months of the year, over 57% in the period, accelerating the reorganization of supply chains that the report identified as a trend for 2026.

Mid-market and resale. They continue to move in the expected direction. No big surprises… for now.

The conclusion that matters

The report was right in its diagnosis. It was slightly off in its timing.

The trends they placed on the 2026 horizon are no longer on the horizon. They are already the present.

And that confirms something that goes far beyond this report.

In an environment where the rules change twice in a semester, it is no longer about predicting trends better, but about building organizations capable of making better decisions when the trend changes.

Strategy is no longer about being right, and is starting to be about adapting before everyone else.

That is the conversation we propose from QOLABS. Not analysis for the sake of analysis, but the structure to act when the map changes.

Co-create. Co-structure. Co-evolve.

QOLABS Editorial